JAH - President Trump and MAGA

35% TO 40% APPROVAL OF PRESIDENT TRUMP AMONG AFRICAN AMERICANS? WELL, NOT EXACTLY.....

BELOW ARE THE RESULTS of polling by SEVEN survey organizations regarding President Trump's mid-2018 approval rating among African Americans. Six of the seven polling results show approval ratings ranging from 6% to 13% and are consistent with previous polling among African Americans, as well as the president's 8% support from African Americans in the 2016 election. Polling by a seventh survey organization, Rasmussen, reports an astonishing 36% approval among African Americans of the president's handling of his jobs. Not surprisingly, it is the Rasmussen polling result that the White House has chosen to tout publicly. In the statistical dataset of polling results available, the 36% result is what is known as an "outlier" or "anomaly", and it is routinely discarded from a dataset by statisticians because it is clearly NOT representative of the population being studied (i.e., it's an erroneous result produced by a biased/flawed sampling method or error in data reduction). BOTTOM LINE: The President continues to garner the approval of only around one in ten African Americans.

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36% = President Donald Trump's APPROVAL rating among African-Americans

SOURCE: RASMUSSEN REPORTS, August, 2018
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6% of blacks APPROVE of the way Trump is handling his job as president

84% of blacks DISAPPROVE of the way Trump is handling his job as president

SOURCE: PEW RESEARCH CENTER, Survey of U.S. adults conducted September 18-24, 2018
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13% of black voters APPROVE of the way Trump is handling his job as president

SOURCE: GALLUP, August, 2018
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13% of black voters APPROVE of the way Trump is handling his job as president

SOURCE: REUTERS, August, 2018
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6% of blacks APPROVE of the way Trump is handling his job as president

91% of blacks DISAPPROVE of the way Trump is handling his job as president

SOURCE: CIVIQS, August 15, 2018
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13% = Donald Trump�s average APPROVAL rating among African American respondents

SOURCE: YOUGOV/ECONOMIST, August, 2018
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9% = Donald Trump�s average APPROVAL rating among African American respondents

SOURCE: QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY, July-August, 2018
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http://www.people-press.org/2018/10/01/trump-gets-negative-ratings-for-many-personal-traits-but-most-say-he-stands-up-for-his-beliefs/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/08/17/no-one-third-of-african-americans-dont-support-trump-not-even-close/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.2e49156199d7

Messenger: Angel in Zion

Sent: 11/9/2018 9:44:30 AM

"Another federal court has said what we've always known: that Trump's decision to kill DACA was wrong and that his sole motivation was to deport 800,000 people of color," said Sanaa Abrar of the group United We Dream, which advocates for DACA recipients.

Messenger: Hemphill

Sent: 11/9/2018 11:16:27 AM

Hidden - Foolishness

Messenger: Nesta1

Sent: 11/9/2018 2:11:03 PM

Some simplified basic statistical concepts:

�Population� - a complete set of elements (persons or objects) that possess some common characteristic (e.g., African American) defined by the sampling criteria established by the researcher

�Target population� - The entire group of people or objects to which the researcher wishes to generalize the study findings (e.g., all African American citizens eligible to vote)

�Parameter� - a numerical value or measure of a characteristic of the population (e.g., percent of U.S. African American population who approve of President Trump�s job performance).

�Sample� - the selected elements (people or objects) chosen for participation in a study; people are referred to as subjects or participants

�Sampling - � the process of selecting a group of people, events, behaviors, or other elements with which to conduct a study

�Representativeness�- the sample must be as much like the population in as many ways as possible
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To design a statistically valid sampling [polling] program it is necessary to begin with an idea [estimate] of the population study parameter(s) being studied (e.g., percent of U.S. African American population who approve of President Trump�s job performance). To do this, the statistician uses available information about the population and the parameter to make estimates which allow him/her to design a sampling program for the statistical study (poll) to obtain representative results for the selected parameter. This does not bias the results toward the parameter estimates, but instead helps to eliminate bias in order to obtain representative results.

Available pre-study information and data, both quantitative and anecdotal, support the expectation that Donald Trump will have a lower approval rating with African Americans than with the total U.S. voter population as a whole. This is a reasonable expectation and the implementation of a robust sampling design in statistical study which bears this out is further validation of that expectation. A statistical (polling) result that President Trump�s approval rating is close to the same as that of the total U.S. voter population as a whole is at odds with sampling design estimates/expectations (based on available quantitative data and anecdotal observations), and is strongly indicative of a flawed sampling design which resulted in the polling of a sample group which was not representative of the African American population as a whole.

Hence, the argument that most statistical studies are garbage fails to recognize that some studies are definitely more scientifically & mathematically valid and representative than others.

Messenger: Hemphill

Sent: 11/12/2018 12:11:48 PM

Uhhmm can you read?

Yeah, Rasmussen has an uncanny accuracy with polls.

Again nesta, no matter what the number is -- around 35 to 40% -- still doesnt give you the right to call them "just plain stupid".. Disgusting liberal hypocrites

Messenger: Nesta1

Sent: 11/12/2018 2:21:44 PM

"In the statistical dataset of polling results available, the 36% result [from Rasmussen) is what is known as an "outlier" or "anomaly", and it is routinely discarded from a dataset by statisticians because it is clearly NOT representative of the population being studied (i.e., it's an erroneous result produced by a biased/flawed sampling method or error in data reduction)."

"Available pre-study information and data, both quantitative and anecdotal, support the expectation that Donald Trump will have a lower approval rating with African Americans than with the total U.S. voter population as a whole. "

"Six of the seven polling results show approval ratings [among African Americans for Donald Trump]ranging from 6% to 13% and are consistent with previous polling among African Americans, as well as the president's 8% support from African Americans in the 2016 election."

Messenger: Nesta1

Sent: 11/12/2018 2:21:45 PM

Messenger: Hemphill

Sent: 11/13/2018 11:41:50 AM

Fake news from biased liberal source.

Rasmussen is one of the most accurate time and time again.

Still. Doesnt give you the right to call them "just plain stupid"

Messenger: Nesta1

Sent: 11/13/2018 2:44:58 PM

i've drawn no conclusion about Rasmussen's credibility overall. It is, however, quite demonstrably clear that the 36% African American approval rating for President Trump polling result cited above is an anomalous result (an outlier) which completely unrepresentative of the study population and is most likely the product of a flawed sampling design.

Messenger: Hemphill

Sent: 11/14/2018 7:10:38 PM

First Step Act. Trump moves forward with long awaited bipartisan criminal justice reform.

�We're all better off when former inmates can receive and re-enter society as law abiding, productive citizens,� "This is a big breakthrough for a lot of people," Trump said of the criminal justice reform bill known as the First Step Act, which he said he will sign and urged Congress to push forward. "Go out there and see if you can get that done. ... I'm waiting. I'm waiting with a pen."